Nintendo Earnings on November 5: Switch 2's First Quarter at $499.99, the 16.5 Million Forecast, and the Math Behind It

🕹️Mechanics

Nintendo reports results for the second quarter of its fiscal year ending March 2027 on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Its investor relations calendar lists the date but not a time.^[1] Nintendo's fiscal year starts in April, so the new quarter covers July 1 to September 30, 2026. The release reports the first half (April to September) as a whole, so the quarter itself is our subtraction.

This page is a preview, not a prediction of Nintendo's numbers. We stick to what Nintendo has disclosed and forecast, name the analysts we quote, and label our own math. We don't quote a consensus figure because we couldn't verify one from a primary source.

What Nintendo reports. Unlike Microsoft, Nintendo reports hardware and software units for each system, plus net sales, operating profit, digital sales and its full-year forecast.^[2][3] That makes its results the clearest read the industry gets on whether a console is selling. Sony reports its own July to September results the same day, so PlayStation and Switch 2 numbers land together.^[17]

Switch 2 shipments by quarter (millions of units, sell-in):

Source for the table: Nintendo's first-quarter explanatory material.^[3] Our math: that's 23.68 million Switch 2 units shipped through June 2026.

What the forecast requires (our math). To hit 16.5 million for the year, Nintendo needs about 12.68 million Switch 2 units from July 2026 to March 2027. It shipped 14.04 million in those same three quarters a year ago, so the forecast assumes a 9.7% decline over the rest of the year. That's much gentler than the first quarter's 34.4% drop, which was measured against launch months.^[3]

⚙️Tech

Memory is now a line item. Nintendo's forecast includes about ¥100 billion of impact from rising component prices, which it ties mainly to memory, and from US tariffs, all of it in cost of sales. The tariff part uses rates in effect at the end of March 2026.^[3] This is the same memory crunch behind every console price increase this year (see our 2026 console prices breakdown).

Why the Switch 2 cost more from September 1. On May 8, Nintendo raised the Switch 2 to $499.99 from $449.99 in the US, to $679.99 from $629.99 in Canada, and to €499.99 from €469.99 in Europe, all from September 1, after raising Japan's price to ¥59,980 from ¥49,980 on May 25. It said "the impact of various changes in market conditions is expected to extend over the medium to long term."^[5][15] In August, Nintendo said Switch 2 sell-through in Japan "remained solid" after the price rise there.^[3] The July to September quarter is the first with the higher US price for its final month, so November 5 is the first official read on how demand reacted.

Digital is doing more of the work. Digital sales were ¥132.7 billion in the first quarter, up 90%, and digital made up 61.5% of Nintendo's platform software sales (up 2.2 points).^[2][3] Switch 2's game-key cards push in the same direction: the cartridge holds no game data and downloads the game the first time you use it.^[14] See our PlayStation discs breakdown for how Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo now differ on physical games.

Our read: digital games and Nintendo's own software carry far higher margins than hardware, which is how profit can rise while hardware falls. Hardware was 55.3% of platform sales in the first quarter, down from 78.8% a year earlier, and gross margin rose to 54.3% from 32.3%.^[3]

💼Business

First quarter: sales down, profit up. Net sales fell 9.5% to ¥517.8 billion. Operating profit rose 150.5% to ¥142.6 billion and net profit rose 53.5% to ¥147.4 billion.^[2] Two things drove profit, per Nintendo: software was a bigger share of sales, and the US refunded IEEPA tariffs Nintendo had already booked. Nintendo recorded the refund, about $300 million, as a reduction of cost of sales.^[2][3] Our rough math: at the first quarter's average rate of ¥159.38 to the dollar, that's roughly ¥48 billion. Even without it, operating profit would have been about ¥95 billion, still up by around two-thirds.

The forecast, unchanged in August. For the year to March 2027, Nintendo forecasts net sales of ¥2,050 billion (-11.4%), operating profit of ¥370 billion (+2.7%) and net profit of ¥310 billion (-26.9%), with a ¥162 dividend.^[2] Last year's results were ¥2,313.1 billion in net sales and ¥360.1 billion in operating profit.^[4] It also forecasts 60 million Switch 2 games (+23.2%), 2 million original Switch consoles (-47.4%) and 105 million Switch 1 games (-23.3%).^[3]

What the forecast implies for the rest of the year (our math). The first quarter already delivered 38.5% of the full-year operating profit target. Hitting ¥370 billion exactly would mean about ¥227 billion over July to March, down about 25% from the ¥303 billion Nintendo earned in those quarters last year. On sales, the remaining ¥1,532 billion would be about 12% below last year's ¥1,741 billion.^[2][4] Either the forecast is cautious, or Nintendo expects the ¥100 billion cost hit to land in the second half.

The year-ago bar for the half. Last year's first half was 10.36 million Switch 2 units, 20.62 million Switch 2 games, ¥1,099.6 billion in net sales and ¥145.2 billion in operating profit.^[6] Our math: that makes last year's second quarter alone ¥527.2 billion in sales and ¥88.3 billion in operating profit. Nintendo needs only about ¥2.6 billion of operating profit in this quarter to beat last year's half, but about ¥582 billion of sales (+10% on last year's quarter) to match last year's half on sales.

Precedent for a revision. At the same point last year, on November 4, 2025, Nintendo raised its full-year forecast: net sales to ¥2,250 billion from ¥1,900 billion, and operating profit to ¥370 billion from ¥320 billion, citing sales through September and a revised euro rate.^[7] It also raised its dividend payout to 40% of operating profit that day.^[8] This year's forecast assumes ¥150 to the dollar and ¥175 to the euro, while the first quarter averaged ¥159.38 to the dollar.^[3] Our read: a weaker yen than assumed increases the yen value of Nintendo's overseas sales, which were 77.9% of the total last quarter.^[2] That's one reason a forecast change is possible. It's not a prediction that one is coming.

What analysts have said. When Nintendo issued the forecast in May, its shares fell 8.4%. Serkan Toto of Kantan Games told CNBC Nintendo was "lowballing," and Morningstar's Kazunori Ito called the guidance "overly conservative" and expected about 19 million Switch 2 units.^[9] In July, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan forecast 17.1 million Switch 2 shipments in calendar 2026, inside a global console market it expects to fall 19.5% to 33.9 million. Its analyst Neil Barbour described "hardware that is either too old or too expensive for the median consumer."^[10]

The US data so far. In Circana's September report, Switch 2 hardware fell 14% in units and 12% in dollars year over year, behind PS5 for the month.^[11] That's one country and one month, so treat it as a signal, not the answer.

👥Player impact

• Don't wait for a price cut. Nintendo raised prices in May and said market pressures will last "over the medium to long term."^[5] Nothing it has published suggests a cut. Our read: earnings day is more likely to bring a forecast change than a price change.
• Bundles are the cheaper way in. The Switch 2 + Nintendo Switch Sports Resort bundle is $529.99 and the Mario Kart World bundle is $549.99, each with a digital game and three months of Nintendo Switch Online. That's $27.98 and $37.98 less than buying each item separately at list price.^[12][16]
• The holiday lineup is in place. Nintendo Switch Sports Resort launched October 22 (a 10.3 GB download), and The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, a Switch 2 exclusive remake, launches November 5. Nintendo lists Ocarina at an estimated 27 GB.^[12][13][16] Plan storage before you buy.
• Your Switch 1 games still matter. Nintendo notes Switch 2 plays Switch 1 games, and older Switch titles are still selling steadily.^[2]
• Check the box for a key icon. A game-key card needs a download and free storage the first time you play.^[14]

🔭Long-term outlook

Nintendo is managing year two, not chasing it. It's guiding to fewer consoles, more games per console and steady profit. It says first-quarter Switch 2 sell-through "compares favorably" to the original Switch at the same point, and that annual playing users stay above 100 million.^[3] Its biggest releases after Ocarina are 2027 titles: Pokémon Winds and Pokémon Waves, Xenoblade Genesis, and a live-action Zelda film, following The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's more than $1 billion at the box office.^[3]

Our read: if memory prices keep rising, Nintendo can protect profit with software, digital sales and films far more easily than Sony or Microsoft, whose console businesses lean harder on hardware and subscriptions. The risk is the installed base. Fewer new consoles now means fewer buyers for 2027's big games. Compare our Xbox earnings preview for how differently Microsoft is placed. For Nintendo's own 2026 slate, see our Metroid Ravenous breakdown.

❓Open questions

• Does Nintendo keep, raise or cut the 16.5 million Switch 2 forecast?
• How did September's $499.99 US price affect demand, and does Nintendo comment on it?
• How much of the ¥100 billion component and tariff cost has landed so far?^[3]
• Does the weaker yen change the exchange-rate assumption of ¥150 to the dollar?^[3]
• Does Nintendo say anything about memory supply, or more price changes in other regions?
• How did Splatoon Raiders (July) and Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave (September) sell in their first quarter?^[2]

💬FAQ